Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadfe1081ee9ca7152581929a982be3d1f5ec674465868f9501334d719a9948ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,705 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,537$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 1c | 2,219$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0d…0cf4backed Yes | 5c | 2,098$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 68c | 2,021$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.47 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 8c | 2,015$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.57 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,195$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 933.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.5 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…eab9backed Yes | 34c | 922.12$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 738.43$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 11c | 690.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 564.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 11c | 507$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.03 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…1a56backed Yes | 4c | 413.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 368.69$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.69 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 18c | 353.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 351.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 6c | 348.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 76c | 332.23$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 50c | 332.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.32 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 322.7$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 316.28$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…385ebacked Yes | 4c | 315.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 246.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 42c | 234.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 45c | 185.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 183.34$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 34c | 158.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.47 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 73c | 154.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 149.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 38c | 121.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 101.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 76c | 97.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 64c | 94.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked No | 44c | 86.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 25c | 73.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 72.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9d…3d66backed No | 76c | 72.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 58.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 23c | 54.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked No | 40c | 53.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 67c | 52.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 30c | 46.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 24c | 45.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 48c | 38.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 38.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 35.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 34.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 58c | 34.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked No | 36c | 33.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked No | 51c | 32.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 55c | 27.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…d488backed No | 60c | 25.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 63c | 23.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes | 76c | 22.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 77c | 22.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 21.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 20.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 76c | 20.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 53c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 63c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 70c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 73c | 15.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.