Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23d0ef1b3c7addb67490297908f7a6ece51d82246c4736a24ab097f67bc457fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,934 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,595$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.06 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 1,024$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 11c | 768.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.06 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 15c | 502.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 4c | 492.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 455.3$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.28 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 77c | 450.01$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 438.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 6c | 340.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 8c | 329.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed No | 76c | 329.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.45 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 5c | 324$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 28c | 305.05$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.34 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 303.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 302.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.58 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 274.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…a7e4backed Yes | 78c | 260.88$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 35c | 221.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 17c | 199.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 8c | 199.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 196.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 187.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 76c | 153.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 146$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 128.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 39c | 127.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 120.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes | 17c | 116.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 80c | 97.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 88.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 86.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 25c | 83.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 78c | 79.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 31c | 78.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 67c | 74.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…7435backed No | 80c | 72.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 73c | 57.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 36.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 66c | 36.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 34.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…bdc4backed No | 79c | 34.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…1ce7backed No | 65c | 29.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 61c | 16.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.