Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1896ef8c8b217a498f200af74633bbbc3cbdb56841cebdd90f6c0c5e08907b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,480 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a1…a7e4backed Yes | 35c | 499.69$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 429.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 68c | 411.42$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 39c | 321$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 254.52$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 34c | 220.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…2fdbbacked Yes | 46c | 219.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 176.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 168.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 152.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 146$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…059abacked Yes | 42c | 125.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 112.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 103.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 100.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 100.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 42c | 96.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…faf9backed Yes | 39c | 90.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 43c | 83.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb9…8902backed No | 76c | 80.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 38c | 78.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 77.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 75.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 74.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 68c | 73.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 74c | 69.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 67.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 62c | 67.05$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 66.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 63.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 57.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 30c | 49.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 40c | 49.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 40c | 49.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 45.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 32c | 40.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 61c | 40.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 67c | 37.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 68c | 37.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 33.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 27.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc86…9a39backed Yes | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 61c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 61c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 59c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d59…3fadbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.