Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f21ce93af086deb515c7c8e7e4f610d94b0fea92c241708d547e95bba7683a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,724 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 3c | 1,125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 1,045$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed No | 1c | 967.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 886.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 17c | 881.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 46c | 784.44$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.17 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 2c | 666.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…a7e4backed Yes | 79c | 634.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 36c | 546.6$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.39 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 53c | 401.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 363.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 61c | 342.96$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 307.93$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.22 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 36c | 285.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 63c | 270.59$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.71 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 262.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 30c | 243.41$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 26c | 233.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 232.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 230.76$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 59c | 219.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 206.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 206.23$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 58c | 174.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 50c | 169.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 48c | 168.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 167.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 72c | 164.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 149.24$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 146$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 70c | 141.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 75c | 134.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 119.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 118.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 77c | 113$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 107.23$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 27c | 107.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 107.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 44c | 102.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 76c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 74c | 94.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 34c | 84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 80.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…24e5backed No | 40c | 75.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 74.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 48c | 72.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 72.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 68c | 71.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 63.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 51c | 62.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 56c | 62.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 48c | 62.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 57c | 60.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 60.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 54.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 70c | 54.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 31c | 53.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 52.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 48.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…8a7bbacked Yes | 63c | 47.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 39c | 42.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 68c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 49c | 40.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 64c | 39.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 56c | 38.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 34c | 33.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…a764backed Yes | 67c | 31.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ce…ed4ebacked No | 70c | 29.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 44c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 46c | 27.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 23.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked No | 46c | 22.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 20.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.