Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x588ad6ef191fe3a43d0a42b12184b521d2b3d421ca91a9d5bbf608cc291a8626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 31c | 537.74$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.31 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 78c | 443.42$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 10c | 333.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 15c | 251.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 201.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e8b7backed Yes | 13c | 161.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 20c | 158.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 138.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 136.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 128.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 120.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 40c | 118.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 108.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 22c | 104.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 97.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 62c | 96.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 93.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 37c | 89.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…68bbbacked No | 78c | 47.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 44.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…37f1backed Yes | 31c | 39.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 37c | 39.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed No | 75c | 33.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…a6ecbacked No | 78c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…3887backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2313…b4d3backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 75c | 14.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.