Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cedf924b610b30ac3e8ad9d06d6f1bd5851ce18410c07e0639860a9aec46bb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 371.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 7c | 353.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 327.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 65c | 210.07$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 209.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 183.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 11c | 173.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 120.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 39c | 107.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 105.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…37f1backed Yes | 27c | 104.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 100.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 49c | 98.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 19c | 90.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 71.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 20c | 64.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 26c | 57.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 55c | 48.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 48.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 34.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 75c | 26.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 22.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked No | 65c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 49°F or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.