Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7c5a74cd00aa5604a51e1f441f9228e497fce0a50863c28b0b34bf82b68ca56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,967 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 36c | 839.65$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.99 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 585.36$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 58c | 415.6$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.6 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 298.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 257.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 4c | 251.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 243.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 41c | 219.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 75c | 204.98$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.21 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…0439backed No | 66c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.24 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 13c | 195.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.13 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 184.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 65c | 173.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 162.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 33c | 130.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 127.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 124.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 67c | 115.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 114.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 112.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 105.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 24c | 103.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 69c | 103.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 51c | 89.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 87.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 65c | 86.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 83.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 65c | 74.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…63d5backed No | 72c | 72.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 66.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 66.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 39c | 66.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 64.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 61.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 29c | 53.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…1606backed Yes | 29c | 45.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 40.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 75c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 75c | 36.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 48c | 35.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…1e5fbacked No | 77c | 35.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…ae65backed No | 77c | 31.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 35c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 29.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 23.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 17.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 75c | 16.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e90…6303backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.