Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3778e4e356c4fd99553e2168827602d5fbc84fd828cae88c1c64faa5f257cfd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,652 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 47c | 599.77$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.83 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 4c | 411.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 50c | 337.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 4c | 324.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 323.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 30c | 276$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.46 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 272.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 61c | 245.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 202.07$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 197.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 17c | 166.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 61c | 147.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 139.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b2…df36backed Yes | 9c | 134.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 130.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 127.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 107.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 47c | 105.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 84.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 66c | 74.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 62.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 57.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 40c | 55.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 46c | 54.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 55c | 51.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 47.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 46.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…da59backed Yes | 57c | 39.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 32c | 39.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 56c | 39.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 59c | 37.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 70c | 35.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 51c | 35.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 48c | 35.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 47c | 34.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 52c | 33.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 32.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 38c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 41c | 26.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 24.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 53c | 22.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 63c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 47c | 21.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 79°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.