Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1d05a1b89f41ba2c7f264c7cbcd7d41f98505e01be2f97f095a1f7a56ef3742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 33c | 3,414$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.54 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,017$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 10c | 1,692$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.49 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 25c | 1,341$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.42 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked Yes | 6c | 1,064$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 1,048$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.68 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 7c | 981.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 956.34$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 4c | 938.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 1c | 781.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.01 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 77c | 776.07$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 60c | 773.12$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 3c | 675.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.06 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 601.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.59 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed No | 34c | 541.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 376.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 7c | 360.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.81 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 80c | 355.47$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.09 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 5c | 350$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.25 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 14c | 345.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 14c | 260.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 250.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 20c | 238.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 71c | 238$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.86 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…0060backed Yes | 78c | 232.15$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 28c | 230.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.55 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 67c | 227.73$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed No | 69c | 223.19$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 18c | 189.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.09 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 181.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 62c | 160$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 10c | 154.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…7a6bbacked No | 46c | 137.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked No | 12c | 132.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 127.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 39c | 124.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 22c | 111.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 14c | 102.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 18c | 99.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…9bdabacked Yes | 23c | 87.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 15c | 84.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 81.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed Yes | 73c | 79.62$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 15c | 77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 46c | 75.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 65c | 70.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 39c | 64.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 30c | 64.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 50c | 63.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 24c | 60.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 59c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 19c | 59.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…4165backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed No | 34c | 44.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 36c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 26c | 42.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 42c | 37.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 43c | 33.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 34c | 29.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 52c | 27.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 71c | 25.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 22.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 74c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…43b1backed Yes | 65c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…0c24backed Yes | 68c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.