Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b243b389bd9553e91214618a4a554766791f775e55c4b453e21023caa119bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 702.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 573.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 373.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 312.19$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 251.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 26c | 205.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 64c | 186.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 184.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 180.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 160.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 155.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 149.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 36c | 139.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 34c | 128.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 128.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 34c | 124.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 123.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 118.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 115.29$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 21c | 114.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 110.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 110.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 24c | 96.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 91.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 28c | 90.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 33c | 88.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 34c | 88.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 85.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 35c | 84.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 82.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 26c | 81.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 80.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 76.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 75.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 35c | 70.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 25c | 68.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…6eaabacked No | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 23c | 66.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 62.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 32c | 62.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 57.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 34c | 54.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 72c | 52.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 61c | 43.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…b2b8backed Yes | 25c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 41.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 36c | 41.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 25c | 39.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 66c | 39.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 34c | 36.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 35.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 71c | 33.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 68c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 71c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.