Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd115825c6a9398e17aa09ad5dc09f2e7011023248c525d91ad5dc3b6e87501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 1c | 4,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 735.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 548.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 14c | 542.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 79c | 505.86$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 424.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 373.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 325$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 9c | 313.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 254.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 4c | 238.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 27c | 236.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 20c | 224$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 60c | 182.2$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 174.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 26c | 155.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 8c | 152.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 151.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 31c | 147.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 40c | 144.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 134.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 133$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 8c | 125.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 43c | 116.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Yes | 36c | 113.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe06…d8d8backed Yes | 32c | 109.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 19c | 106.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 99.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 23c | 91.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 31c | 88.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 83.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 19c | 71.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 63.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 58.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 49.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 32c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 40c | 37.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 36.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 72c | 33.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 45c | 31.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 63c | 28.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed No | 75c | 26.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 80c | 26.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 47c | 22.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 79c | 20.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 68c | 20.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 65c | 19.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 78c | 17.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 15.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.