Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53e453fcd8f3d0e452a385f6e7a9537160ffa1d0b3549a3678297a4eb94057d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,117 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb831…892bbacked No | 50c | 566.72$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.11 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…d8cebacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 37c | 457.53$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 25c | 313.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked No | 67c | 263.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…7184backed Yes | 41c | 190.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 43c | 180.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb485…20a5backed Yes | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 66c | 134.73$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…4887backed Yes | 80c | 125.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…f168backed No | 27c | 125.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 48c | 118.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 10c | 102.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…2909backed Yes | 14c | 101.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 44c | 100.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 50c | 100.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 12c | 100.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd9…eef6backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 137 | 18.2%25 W · 112 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…50dbbacked No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 40c | 97.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 34c | 88.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 31c | 79.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 70.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 28c | 63.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked Yes | 19c | 60.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814f…aeecbacked Yes | 36c | 58.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 62c | 56.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 21c | 52.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…bb2fbacked Yes | 42c | 47.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…d6f0backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked Yes | 39c | 44.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 44.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 50c | 39.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 48c | 35.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…3806backed Yes | 70c | 33.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 30.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc6…e280backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-9 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 10-19 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-29 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60+ tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.