Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 60+ tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3c45866e82e9eca793925820f2c24458cd8cb29e74fe0c351f669ed3a4d8683
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked No | 45c | 3,750$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes | 55c | 3,750$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 10c | 249.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 13c | 204.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…953cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 174.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 48c | 173.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.42 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 16c | 119.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 126 | 14.3%18 W · 108 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…206bbacked Yes | 11c | 118.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 29c | 115$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 15c | 101.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 24c | 91.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f2…fb3bbacked Yes | 24c | 81.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 43.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed4…c4f2backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 31c | 39.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 56c | 37.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed No | 78c | 30.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbf…3573backed Yes | 75c | 28.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…1b67backed Yes | 66c | 22.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 67c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 60+ tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-9 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 10-19 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-29 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 50-59 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.