AI · resolved market
Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f75155ac6d134cbb410759c03bbf83a286075fc875dfedef501e18da106c67b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 12c | 1,528$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,276$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee1c…9f06backed Yes | 12c | 915.32$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…378fbacked Yes | 9c | 527.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 66c | 428.57$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 60c | 427.91$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.48 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed No | 76c | 330.02$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked Yes | 10c | 256.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 70c | 250.33$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…505ebacked Yes | 54c | 143.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 117.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 59c | 84.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…9de9backed Yes | 26c | 76.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…64c1backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…2214backed Yes | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…c299backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c2…1ed5backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 71c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0140…65c6backed Yes | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?Yes won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.