Music · resolved market
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfaf53b26e503ba5c1060712127e86a0b91c607248ca53e1d6a78b7e6eb08f40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 65c | 3,142$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.8 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 77c | 3,131$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.06 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 49c | 1,173$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 71c | 1,067$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 60c | 1,061$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.41 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 29c | 920$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 51c | 878$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed No | 44c | 822.91$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 13c | 738.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 17c | 731.74$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 6c | 537.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c0…38acbacked No | 8c | 535.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 7c | 460$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b53…894fbacked No | 6c | 440.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 9c | 438.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 437$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.66 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 9c | 428.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 10c | 428.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 9c | 417.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 12c | 411.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 7c | 396.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 57c | 360.15$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 29c | 320$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…dadfbacked No | 48c | 260.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…e3d4backed No | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c3…7003backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 234.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 31c | 214.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed Yes | 71c | 173$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 29c | 158.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 153.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 133.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 27c | 132.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 22c | 132.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 27c | 104.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…a7e7backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 84.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…f72bbacked No | 39c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed No | 31c | 73.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…edd5backed No | 44c | 67.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 63.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 63c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 65c | 52.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…3036backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b03…83dcbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 49.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 37.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…8087backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Ed Sheeran have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kanye West have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.