Music · resolved market
Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3193a4c8fc9111f9d34ad508dbb6767b96a2de5587f998c3a989a4340d4f17f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef66…98c0backed Yes | 1c | 6,272$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e5…fbaebacked Yes | 1c | 6,126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…78ffbacked Yes | 25c | 1,891$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5403…edd5backed Yes | 2c | 1,631$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,576$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.49 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 13c | 1,468$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,288$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed Yes | 42c | 1,094$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 18c | 949.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 13c | 903$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 12c | 842$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 655.16$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 73c | 535.43$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.47 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 441.25$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 18c | 438$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…dadfbacked Yes | 33c | 362.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…f72bbacked Yes | 20c | 345.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 342.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…8751backed Yes | 9c | 319.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 296.45$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 268.85$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 32c | 255.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 222.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…a55dbacked Yes | 35c | 206.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…9ee5backed Yes | 21c | 178.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 171.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 14c | 153.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 7c | 152$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 20c | 149.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 126.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 124.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 77 | 10.4%8 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…df40backed Yes | 30c | 123.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 72c | 114$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…af18backed Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…2db8backed Yes | 21c | 105$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 101.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 96.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 25c | 90.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…be5fbacked Yes | 46c | 90$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked Yes | 29c | 89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…1afabacked Yes | 27c | 88.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 18c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27f…61dabacked Yes | 22c | 66.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…5a43backed Yes | 52c | 57.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…49d8backed Yes | 44c | 57.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 21c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…9f1cbacked Yes | 30c | 50.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…3036backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…5bc1backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d4…aa60backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 43.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 72c | 39.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…56adbacked No | 78c | 35.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed No | 78c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…8087backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa675…c87fbacked No | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Ed Sheeran have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kanye West have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Kendrick Lamar have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.