Us Politics · resolved market
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cb9667c48f0e7c21fe346a57fc8355c32d4eb2317d1341bc41918622b437d98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 78c | 8,132$6,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,377.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed No | 17c | 6,489$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,395.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 67c | 5,879$3,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,932.69 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 33c | 5,728$1,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,832.03 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…e1d7backed Yes | 3c | 4,977$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 2c | 2,471$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…701cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,540$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 56c | 1,417$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.16 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 15c | 1,264$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +131.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 73c | 925.26$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.1 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 912.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 73c | 864.13$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.29 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 43c | 636.67$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.72 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked Yes | 80c | 534$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 4c | 526.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecc…3739backed Yes | 2c | 508$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…6e24backed Yes | 3c | 460.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes | 73c | 458.53$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.91 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…6cfdbacked No | 32c | 436.67$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.36 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 64c | 400.01$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.66 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 73c | 353.66$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 40c | 350$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…6d0dbacked No | 21c | 349$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +383.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 76c | 345.53$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.82 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked No | 35c | 285.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.97 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…7014backed No | 31c | 275$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990d…5463backed Yes | 70c | 236.63$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…1d03backed No | 30c | 236.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 182.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…aba5backed Yes | 58c | 174.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ea…5799backed No | 57c | 173.28$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 165.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…a653backed No | 30c | 122.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…f30dbacked Yes | 70c | 122.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…1352backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 29c | 93.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 19c | 85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…f13abacked Yes | 69c | 81.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked No | 18c | 77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…0b07backed Yes | 76c | 71.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 22c | 68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked No | 23c | 53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 70c | 49.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 65c | 38.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 76c | 30.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…9f0dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…9e9cbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…d59dbacked Yes | 70c | 29.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…2581backed Yes | 57c | 22.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?this page
- Will Brooke Rollins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Doug Burgum be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Howard Lutnick be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will J.D. Vance be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Jamieson Greer be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Kelly Loeffler be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Mike Waltz be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will None in 2025 occur?Yes won
- Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Scott Bessent be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Sean Duffy be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
- Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.