TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will None in 2025 occur?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21fe…da90backed No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes19c4,800$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.993432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c9b…3796backed No3c3,339$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No79c3,135$2,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,476.9741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes15c2,920$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.994436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No41c2,024$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.371643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-33.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes80c1,953$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.813938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes47c1,817$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.257167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes63c1,232$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes46c1,078$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-76%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes57c1,076$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.3823543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c942.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.671,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c816.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5813216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a56…adabbacked No56c733.23$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.972147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No7c729.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.287656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c0e…434ebacked No5c700$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes78c624.37$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.447556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0ac…c2aabacked No50c600$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2971225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No15c585.62$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.135050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac9e…a350backed No62c500$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No52c490.7$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25517452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d08…3defbacked Yes77c426.07$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes36c400$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.810137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No19c367.47$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.275339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56b…c560backed No57c363$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.65560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe762…7346backed Yes45c357.6$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No7c334.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes13c334.39$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.085250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes76c307.18$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.12147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+101.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No12c271.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.772751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No18c260.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.733618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes34c260$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.029142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cc…f23fbacked No79c254$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.51520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+300%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No53c253.83$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.534731.9%15 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes21c249$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.7113673.5%100 W · 36 L+28.4wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+47.4%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa98a…e546backed No8c230.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…ef6abacked No58c221.29$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+197.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee8…4bd3backed No57c219.12$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.712157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed Yes20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602748.1%13 W · 14 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad90…23d8backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+65.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No60c198.7$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.897740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes51c196.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.042030%6 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes9c175$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.251471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+122.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No17c170.65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.512147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes78c162.08$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.061,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x307c…b0b7backed No30c141.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes11c141.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6321935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc803…4cefbacked Yes50c127.78$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.89850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+74.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes10c125$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No47c119.13$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.765335.8%19 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e3…cda8backed No22c113.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed No21c112.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.64911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No18c105.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6899629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62cc…9d0fbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-82.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472450%12 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8315243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x433a…71e7backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212825%7 W · 21 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…ff6bbacked Yes77c91.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb675…3d65backed Yes71c89.61$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.613060%18 W · 12 L+5.2wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe404…10a4backed No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No34c79.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.192520%5 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No45c77.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.885955.9%33 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No14c71.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.232646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb06…1a41backed Yes46c69.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.94450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes18c68.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9313046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes78c68$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.963043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes79c62.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.314837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2f6…f2e7backed No17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4581…30a3backed Yes78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No21c56.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8355618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes52c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6822641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe856…3789backed Yes74c51.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.241338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-45.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5518…46c8backed Yes58c51.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3014048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…0badbacked Yes61c48.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes79c48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcef6…e423backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Yes79c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+155.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x56e3…521cbacked Yes40c39.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.991861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x023c…bdafbacked Yes57c35.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+166.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes70c33.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7933627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…75a6backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x964a…51ddbacked Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.87147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0e…46e7backed Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x202d…2dcdbacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.