NHL · resolved market
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04495d9c15cc2bce1139c39e77afc7d1213449ae26b89568d25bab56ca9fc4db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,955$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes | 21c | 1,052$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Yes | 19c | 804.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.12 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 770.18$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef7…fba9backed Yes | 6c | 709.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…52d1backed Yes | 21c | 487.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 6c | 415.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…82e2backed Yes | 19c | 393.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…49e2backed Yes | 11c | 377.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a3…2e00backed Yes | 19c | 363.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 230.47$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1059…6a2dbacked Yes | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…73a6backed Yes | 25c | 206.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…7be9backed Yes | 9c | 199.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…7060backed Yes | 25c | 198.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 23c | 174.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 147.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe131…174abacked Yes | 21c | 139.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f07…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 91.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4d…a35abacked Yes | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…5aa6backed Yes | 18c | 81.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes | 17c | 81.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7da…5edfbacked Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…d362backed No | 78c | 55.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 78c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?this page
- Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?No won
- Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?No won
- Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?No won
- Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?No won
- Will Slovakia win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?No won
- Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?Yes won
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.