Music · resolved market
Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb7afda76b33e28e6beca651afcf4ba2c96316330038b37d565311aec7aa80fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 7,335$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,364$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…965fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,468$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…904ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,051$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 17c | 1,740$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa592…8e9dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,271$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 77c | 898.99$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 804.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…0793backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747b…720dbacked Yes | 17c | 558$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a12…8fdabacked Yes | 11c | 398.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed Yes | 11c | 327.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +78%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…5d00backed Yes | 11c | 315$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 13c | 314$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…0caabacked Yes | 7c | 306.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3be…e143backed Yes | 15c | 272.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596d…dde6backed Yes | 23c | 234.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 9c | 226.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 223.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…16b6backed Yes | 14c | 202.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 8c | 195.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dbe…3b30backed Yes | 14c | 185.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…6e34backed Yes | 23c | 159.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…266cbacked Yes | 7c | 154.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…a718backed Yes | 23c | 152.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…0212backed Yes | 8c | 152.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e28…d4aabacked Yes | 14c | 151.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…e9c6backed Yes | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…03cebacked Yes | 18c | 125.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…f7f1backed Yes | 9c | 118.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…aacdbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…7b55backed Yes | 14c | 93.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…2e00backed Yes | 23c | 52.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 23c | 47.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will Man I Need - Olivia Dean be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will What You Saying - Lil Uzi Vert be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.