Music · resolved market
Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b6dc7b8e23cc3630a1a2f2f57f5b87cc599b5f2f0535e552ba8b43ab8e4e17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8ca…965fbacked No | 3c | 1,875$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…547ebacked No | 8c | 1,309$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…904ebacked No | 1c | 1,058$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 797.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2386…1722backed Yes | 79c | 553.1$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.83 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 4c | 528.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 4c | 437.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 7c | 215.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 188.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…03cebacked No | 17c | 170.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…24d2backed No | 16c | 134.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…413dbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +78%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…8652backed No | 15c | 66.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…f934backed Yes | 79c | 50.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?this page
- Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will Man I Need - Olivia Dean be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
- Will What You Saying - Lil Uzi Vert be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.