Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafab12a935c3816aee7f912b20f16f2d564a2260991fb779fa6ce49acac4a5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 2c | 694.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 164 | 31.7%52 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 79c | 689.43$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 300.15$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 173 | 43.4%75 W · 98 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 18c | 290$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.64 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 5c | 289.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 201 | 39.3%79 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 5c | 285.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 58c | 255$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 255 | 62.7%160 W · 95 L | +26.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 19c | 245.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 5c | 224$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 142.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 704 | 15.2%107 W · 597 L | -110.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 129.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 190 | 10%19 W · 171 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 9c | 119.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 106$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 196 | 41.8%82 W · 114 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 24c | 99.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…d875backed Yes | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 20c | 53.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?this page
- Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Jim Nash be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Julia Coleman be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Kristin Robbins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Tom Weiler be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.