Us Midterms · resolved market
Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d59bfc57c5a430a8b44d2240a1baf1ec25f32681af2bef8c2d91d18394c21c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 13c | 1,311$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 34c | 871$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 65c | 850$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 77c | 667$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 66c | 608$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 29c | 587$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 35c | 573$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda4…1058backed No | 65c | 558$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 35c | 533$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked No | 63c | 522$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 37c | 503$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 13c | 494$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…c2dfbacked Yes | 35c | 441$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 441$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 255 | 62.7%160 W · 95 L | +26.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 65c | 433$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.55 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 71c | 413$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 35c | 409$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 35c | 401$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 65c | 401$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed No | 65c | 393$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 35c | 393$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed No | 66c | 377.78$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 65c | 357$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed No | 66c | 353$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 14c | 333.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 37c | 324$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 319.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | -15.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 35c | 308$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 35c | 289$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 71c | 288$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 29c | 288$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd81…ae79backed No | 63c | 266$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 13c | 236$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad04…dce5backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 34c | 181$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed No | 65c | 176$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +103%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 71c | 174$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 529 | 11.7%62 W · 467 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed No | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 141.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 190 | 10%19 W · 171 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 65c | 140$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 133.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 171 | 32.7%56 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed Yes | 26c | 94.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 37c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 69.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 190 | 24.7%47 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 480 | 36.3%174 W · 306 L | -37.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Hann be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?this page
- Will Adam Schwarze be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Jim Nash be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Julia Coleman be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Kristin Robbins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Michele Tafoya be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Yes won
- Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
- Will Tom Weiler be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.