Us Midterms · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be 2,000,000 voters or greater?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7fa7d8259fe15a692e33eb14e52859dd96c4b7902d4d19a0571e8c83e14b517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,288 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 5c | 2,851$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 4c | 1,036$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked No | 32c | 724$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 68c | 647$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 43c | 319.04$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.91 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 9c | 252.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 209$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.92 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…2f62backed No | 56c | 199.65$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec9…3213backed Yes | 68c | 190$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked No | 32c | 113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 12c | 99.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 69c | 45.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…9f91backed No | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be 2,000,000 voters or greater?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be below 1,000,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be between 1,000,000 and 1,250,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be between 1,250,000 and 1,500,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be between 1,500,000 and 1,750,000 voters?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be between 1,750,000 and 2,000,000 voters?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.