Middle East · resolved market
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e233fb1a229de574ed9880ccbd175054135b5e1b107851b876dd2d736ef308e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 21c | 11,413$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,963.05 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce2…de3dbacked No | 0c | 7,779$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…1201backed No | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,652$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,158.55 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 5c | 4,691$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,465.8 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 4c | 4,161$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,006.73 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,779$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445.77 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…03dcbacked No | 32c | 3,293$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.95 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed No | 0c | 2,550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…27fbbacked Yes | 65c | 1,922$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.75 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…8732backed Yes | 6c | 1,462$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.71 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 66c | 1,408$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.52 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 9c | 1,086$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 13c | 1,052$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.24 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.54 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.9 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 11c | 923$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.64 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 3c | 901.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.33 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 40c | 800$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.32 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 13c | 768.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.42 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 4c | 615.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.6 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes | 19c | 579$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +229.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…b7c0backed Yes | 17c | 573.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +343.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 571.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.96 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 383.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 156 | 25%39 W · 117 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 322.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.42 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…acdfbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.4 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…d693backed Yes | 8c | 255$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 77c | 229.55$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…7682backed Yes | 6c | 226.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 12c | 224.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…0af9backed Yes | 22c | 222.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +207.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…9063backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 12c | 190.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5e00backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…83ffbacked Yes | 23c | 159.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 14c | 154.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…8803backed Yes | 25c | 149.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 23c | 130.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 12c | 115.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…ffb4backed Yes | 19c | 105.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.59 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.52per pick | 32cpaid | +190.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 105.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 71c | 96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 80.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…1ff3backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 32c | 51.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a3…58d3backed Yes | 20c | 50.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +246%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 79c | 43.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 124 | 33.1%41 W · 83 L | -12.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…9ae9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.