World Politics · resolved market
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3c5b8034865adca62be35d53a29d1e154a6a4e72e9be8c0d76f19fd481149a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,584$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,143$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 21c | 1,140$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 1,087$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 26c | 999.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 18c | 878.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.98 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…8be2backed No | 72c | 834.31$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 76c | 657.12$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 69c | 650$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 31c | 535.04$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.82 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 68c | 523.3$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.37 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 72c | 487.7$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.41 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 31c | 464.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.37 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 67c | 414.1$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 29c | 342.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 73c | 340$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 30c | 336.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 261.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed No | 74c | 255.16$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 5c | 248.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…4af7backed No | 71c | 237.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ef…07c7backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…cf23backed Yes | 9c | 193.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 179.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 35c | 160$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…73a5backed Yes | 27c | 159.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…3a49backed No | 72c | 139.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…d070backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…ae75backed Yes | 28c | 107.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 76.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed Yes | 30c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 67c | 71.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…dcabbacked Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 69c | 65.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…c1b0backed Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 64.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 19c | 56.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 30c | 45.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Yes | 28c | 44.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 69c | 40.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…fe96backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 69c | 38.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…d56ebacked No | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…673fbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Yes | 35c | 34.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…51acbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 31c | 32.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 66c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…32aabacked No | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 24.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6d…5144backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…f7adbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed No | 72c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.