Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef4edd9750f4dc2017a29c2383bca1d0bc251cd366192a125ea8fe2db85c7e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $187,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 10c | 42,863$4,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,162.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 7c | 10,135$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.17 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,889$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.86 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 8c | 4,257$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,458$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 2,409$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 8c | 2,136$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529f…ffd4backed Yes | 12c | 2,011$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 3c | 1,917$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,219$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 76c | 1,114$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.34 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,003$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 10c | 995$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 935.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 901.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 13c | 867.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed Yes | 13c | 771.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 658.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3c…9f5abacked No | 74c | 640$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 585.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 551.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 7c | 533$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a45…f81bbacked Yes | 2c | 518.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 8c | 509.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…2101backed Yes | 12c | 456.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 428.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 15c | 418.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…a6e0backed Yes | 11c | 413.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…4464backed Yes | 12c | 383.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bc…b0e9backed Yes | 5c | 377.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…d6c1backed Yes | 8c | 373.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…89cdbacked Yes | 11c | 326.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 322.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 28c | 305.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…4328backed Yes | 9c | 304.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…d6fabacked Yes | 10c | 294.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…5548backed Yes | 8c | 280$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 24c | 275$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 76c | 275$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…6cfbbacked Yes | 11c | 265.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…51c8backed Yes | 11c | 254.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 238.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a22…9f35backed Yes | 9c | 224.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…c0f4backed Yes | 11c | 216.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…0694backed Yes | 10c | 210.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…c8eebacked Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +305.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 16c | 193.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…09bebacked Yes | 9c | 163.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…3db7backed Yes | 16c | 155.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked Yes | 17c | 150.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…1015backed Yes | 17c | 142$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…de64backed Yes | 14c | 138$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…e68abacked Yes | 14c | 134.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6785…22e8backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd5…cccebacked Yes | 28c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95c6…0713backed Yes | 17c | 100.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…dee4backed Yes | 16c | 96.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 13c | 93.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 19c | 92.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 11c | 91.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d414backed Yes | 15c | 91.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…1824backed Yes | 43c | 81.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…3c00backed No | 71c | 77.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked No | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083b…609ebacked No | 76c | 39.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 36.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…e8e1backed No | 77c | 31.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…b550backed No | 76c | 19.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 73c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 13, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.