Music · resolved market
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf90f79f3d354269718da14b765d3dccadba711cee9394c580f15fbbf55f06613
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,810 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7fe…e3d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,560$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 50c | 1,097$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 25c | 927.64$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.87 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 50c | 843$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 573.96$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked Yes | 17c | 532$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 8c | 428.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 38c | 390$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 142.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 38c | 135.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 35c | 134.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 50c | 127$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 50c | 127$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 56c | 116.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 112.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed Yes | 11c | 109.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…8261backed Yes | 42c | 108$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 11c | 99.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 49c | 93.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 20c | 91.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 88.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes | 15c | 86.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 81.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 58c | 69.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…4b53backed No | 40c | 62.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…f052backed Yes | 51c | 55.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked No | 62c | 48.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…7b05backed Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 62c | 45.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…6fc4backed Yes | 54c | 44.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 26.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 78c | 25.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 77c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.