TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,934

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,934 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec3a…a709backed Yes47c8,921$4,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,161.171442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes2c2,054$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.781656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No1c1,498$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.14333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick2cpaid+2,356.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No21c1,107$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.191421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes57c802.16$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.814661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes73c761.52$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.531637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda44…2e5abacked No21c759.75$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.86580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+136.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes56c610.28$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.283040%12 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+110.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa428…40c6backed Yes55c514.9$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.6450%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0293…f15bbacked No21c455.92$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.04742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes49c436.69$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.092924.1%7 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No8c433.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.484751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes56c426$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.357145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5869…071dbacked Yes47c292.86$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x005b…2947backed Yes75c291.3$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Yes14c266.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6380%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes58c261.22$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.231241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf259…c9fabacked Yes58c258.62$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325311.3%6 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes40c154.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.573941%16 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd702…daa9backed Yes14c144.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c76…d4eebacked No40c143.44$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b54…8261backed Yes73c132.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d3…4478backed No22c123.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.03333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff6b…c91abacked Yes29c123.49$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes18c103.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.541338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184323.3%10 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes75c88.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.894938.8%19 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes80c86.86$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes28c81.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae85…a62ebacked No21c71.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a59…c2b6backed No40c68.56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.83360.6%20 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes79c63.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c62.84$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3910517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26a…cd9abacked Yes52c61.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce8a…0fe6backed Yes80c55.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No78c54.76$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.054875%36 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed No49c50.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No28c47.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.82653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f5…7b05backed Yes70c46.73$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes59c40.06$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-80.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x616d…dd1bbacked No48c39.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked No57c38.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.564100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba01…2722backed Yes69c36.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf90d…5174backed No31c36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90c1…df40backed Yes69c29.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.34520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd702…91b1backed Yes74c27.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04cc…eacabacked Yes80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-46.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ba4…6fc4backed No68c23.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes55c20.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.238128.4%23 W · 58 L-10.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102030%6 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c18.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.115930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8d1…a02ebacked No57c18.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No79c15.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.193100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes71c15.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.672673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.