Music · resolved market
Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aac2f60a148e32810712dc8a55a3ec07840302e1fa8b78f94459830d112937b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,934 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 47c | 8,921$4,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,161.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,054$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No | 1c | 1,498$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 2cpaid | +2,356.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 21c | 1,107$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 57c | 802.16$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.8 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 73c | 761.52$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 21c | 759.75$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 56c | 610.28$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…40c6backed Yes | 55c | 514.9$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked No | 21c | 455.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 49c | 436.69$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 433.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.48 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 56c | 426$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 47c | 292.86$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005b…2947backed Yes | 75c | 291.3$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Yes | 14c | 266.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…03e0backed Yes | 58c | 261.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 40c | 154.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…daa9backed Yes | 14c | 144.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 40c | 143.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…8261backed Yes | 73c | 132.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…4478backed No | 22c | 123.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Yes | 29c | 123.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 18c | 103.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 75c | 88.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…b68fbacked Yes | 80c | 86.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 28c | 81.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…a62ebacked No | 21c | 71.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed No | 40c | 68.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb522…3ebbbacked Yes | 79c | 63.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 62.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26a…cd9abacked Yes | 52c | 61.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…0fe6backed Yes | 80c | 55.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 54.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 49c | 50.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 28c | 47.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f5…7b05backed Yes | 70c | 46.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 59c | 40.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x616d…dd1bbacked No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked No | 57c | 38.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed Yes | 69c | 36.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…5174backed No | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…df40backed Yes | 69c | 29.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…91b1backed Yes | 74c | 27.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…eacabacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba4…6fc4backed No | 68c | 23.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 55c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 18.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d1…a02ebacked No | 57c | 18.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 71c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.