Movies · resolved market
Will Mike Sweeney - Conan O'Brien Must Go win Best Director of a Reality / Quiz & Game at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e732499a6c1e2cabe2c9707e620678411e202da5632946578ea56370f0b156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,308$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 65c | 951$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked No | 35c | 702$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed No | 35c | 460$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed No | 35c | 423$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 65c | 422$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 35c | 422$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed Yes | 65c | 391$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 35c | 391$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 42c | 363$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 42c | 348$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 65c | 347$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 35c | 174$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 35c | 136$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 77.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…cd35backed Yes | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Sweeney - Conan O'Brien Must Go win Best Director of a Reality / Quiz & Game at the 78th DGA Awards?this page
- Will Lucinda M. Margolis - Jeopardy! win Best Director of a Reality / Quiz & Game at the 78th DGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.