Us Politics · resolved market
Trump-Epstein Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e188dc3741a54831735d1294aa302f062b9eb74f3aec4bec1f8cee64cd6709
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 2,079$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…5b8fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,199$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 1,136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 881.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 824.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 18c | 767.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…744dbacked Yes | 4c | 750$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…ebc1backed Yes | 4c | 669.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…134bbacked Yes | 9c | 556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +240%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 6c | 451.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 8c | 395.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…c899backed Yes | 8c | 394.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 339.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 11c | 337$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c97…035fbacked Yes | 9c | 320$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 318.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 11c | 235$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 12c | 223$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 5c | 215.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 7cpaid | +659%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 11c | 191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 11c | 191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 76c | 183.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f89…0170backed Yes | 12c | 168.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 12c | 163$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 9c | 147.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7321…1812backed Yes | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…4590backed Yes | 12c | 123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…00a5backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 12c | 84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 22c | 68.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed Yes | 29c | 68.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080d…db3ebacked Yes | 16c | 63.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 78c | 42.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 76c | 35.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 24.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a38…f931backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…9f2dbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.