NBA · resolved market

Will Erik Spoelstra win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80d80c124ead8f76478cd9a585b9171cc0ef0b4092cf43c539cfa398ed3dff9b

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,078
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,078 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	1c	4,500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes	7c	2,000$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	31	6.5%2 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Yes	10c	826$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.9	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e2…c2ccbacked Yes	16c	820$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.29	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed Yes	10c	775$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.83	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1f…9ff9backed Yes	11c	548.73$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	505.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.45	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed Yes	10c	476$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.03	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b0e…282abacked Yes	10c	460$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.38	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+103.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes	8c	430$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.5	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	7c	427.43$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.57	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes	10c	378$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.93	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	356.84$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.98	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	352.06$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes	8c	340.97$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	56	28.6%16 W · 40 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes	10c	340$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.02	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	7c	333.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	150	10%15 W · 135 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes	9c	331$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.01	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes	9c	317$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+51.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…3d3ebacked Yes	10c	314.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed Yes	8c	286$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes	10c	251$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.85	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes	10c	233$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82a3…88d0backed Yes	9c	204.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes	10c	204$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	5cpaid	+24%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes	6c	195.46$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes	10c	160$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes	10c	121$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-3.2wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-57.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No	76c	58.1$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.17	15	86.7%13 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.14per pick	72cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	74c	50.65$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.02	88	53.4%47 W · 41 L	+7.3wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Erik Spoelstra win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event