World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff2a670b6d281b45a51c1e0d69cea57101ff7cd65b1430062bdd6c3f66439fe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 2c | 840.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 77c | 699$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 23c | 363$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 358.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 23c | 313$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 312.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 23c | 304$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cb…e2e0backed Yes | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 11c | 165$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 11c | 139.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked No | 77c | 103$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 77c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 77c | 61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will António José Seguro win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win less than 12% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.