World Politics · resolved market
Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827ccc2eb7797328e6f3c92c287f4e1a0cc4521839d1dac2b86a1ba1dcbc9c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 68c | 3,586$2,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.84 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 35c | 3,111$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.95 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 29c | 959.57$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.16 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 24c | 541.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.24 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 44c | 452.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.69 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 39c | 426.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked Yes | 75c | 397.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 77c | 321.22$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 316.78$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.63 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 36c | 304.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 55c | 260$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 10c | 244.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.7 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 73c | 214.87$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 8c | 209.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 64c | 204.57$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.09 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 161$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…576abacked Yes | 48c | 157.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 20c | 144.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 78c | 122.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 12c | 105.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 38c | 71.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 17c | 70.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 38c | 59.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…b3bdbacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a12dbacked No | 52c | 26.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873f…009abacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4237…8700backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?this page
- Will António José Seguro win between 12% and 14% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 14% and 16% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?No won
- Will António José Seguro win less than 12% of votes in the first round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.