F1 · resolved market
Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f1807f88cfec3cba8eb017641ffdfb5393d4457f3efc80c0779b0a7228e7ebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,513 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 47c | 1,010$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.46 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 50c | 755$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked No | 40c | 718.56$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 66c | 457.97$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.97 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb44a…8e18backed Yes | 72c | 415.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f8…8033backed No | 55c | 333.87$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…0fe6backed Yes | 73c | 274.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…43c1backed No | 42c | 239.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 229.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b5…2b23backed No | 49c | 226.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…cc23backed Yes | 63c | 199.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…c17dbacked Yes | 54c | 191.1$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 59c | 169.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ef…6017backed Yes | 66c | 152.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…0e63backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…0335backed Yes | 73c | 137.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 123$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 120.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -8.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 13c | 120.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 41c | 119.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 21c | 107.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 101.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bab…15e7backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…f65bbacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…f968backed Yes | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…6552backed Yes | 60c | 94.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 25c | 93.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…0626backed No | 26c | 87.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 64c | 83.37$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 16c | 79.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b58…3dd7backed No | 40c | 75.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 39c | 74.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…7ad6backed No | 38c | 72.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 100 | 65%65 W · 35 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4551…14e3backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…7c8dbacked Yes | 74c | 63.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b11…fcbcbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed No | 34c | 61.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…8fbebacked Yes | 68c | 59.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…9facbacked Yes | 62c | 53.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…df6cbacked No | 39c | 51.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…f7eebacked No | 36c | 50.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b0…6faebacked No | 42c | 48.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…edaabacked No | 55c | 45.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…8170backed No | 56c | 41.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb37…ff74backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…d3b3backed No | 39c | 38.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11b…5e82backed No | 35c | 38.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…6f2abacked No | 32c | 36.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…8cd6backed No | 44c | 34.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…b693backed Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…5546backed No | 54c | 32.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c94…6ba9backed No | 54c | 28.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5a…ff90backed Yes | 71c | 28.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…8a4dbacked Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…64d3backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…7933backed Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix?this page
- Will Ferrari double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will McLaren double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
- Will Red Bull Racing double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.