Music · resolved market
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01ad538fad33b1c57ee0ad6f0a09753675800616e0aaf18ab877d5e99d065553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,806 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 55c | 3,391$1,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.26 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 59c | 1,637$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…f7eabacked No | 41c | 967$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 962$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked No | 69c | 724$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 41c | 670$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 43c | 570.19$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 48c | 527.73$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 39c | 523.94$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.11 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b64…aa5cbacked Yes | 8c | 499.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 49c | 431$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed Yes | 31c | 375$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked Yes | 31c | 349$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 49c | 295.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…bd19backed Yes | 44c | 238.37$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…c2b6backed Yes | 50c | 235.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 41c | 226.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.89 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 68c | 223.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 52c | 222.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…8075backed Yes | 62c | 205.3$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed Yes | 60c | 192.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed No | 56c | 189.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7145…7fdcbacked Yes | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed Yes | 51c | 180.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 180.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e22…3518backed Yes | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…6747backed No | 56c | 166.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…e311backed Yes | 45c | 149$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 46c | 139.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 12c | 139.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 27c | 139.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b4…2d43backed Yes | 51c | 111.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 13c | 110.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 107.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 78c | 101$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fc…cceebacked Yes | 29c | 96.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed No | 21c | 88.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b54…8261backed No | 21c | 77.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 49c | 72.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed No | 56c | 69.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…6542backed Yes | 78c | 63.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 44c | 59.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…dfc7backed No | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 52c | 57.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…e7e2backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…cc34backed Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…53edbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…c99ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…e948backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…945ebacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…778fbacked No | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8a…401ebacked No | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 48.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a0…62d0backed No | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…4463backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 41c | 41.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…7793backed No | 55c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9f…bc1ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…eacabacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…6689backed No | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3772…7940backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…792fbacked Yes | 58c | 36.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…9e68backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…df40backed Yes | 48c | 34.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce6…9f9bbacked No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…9346backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 48c | 28.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…0175backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122e…cc5dbacked No | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will "American Girls - Harry Styles" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.