TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7145…7fdc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
13
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+107.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$86.92
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+156.4%+$34.16
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST+53.8%+$18.2
All 3 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$11.7
Capitals vs. Flyersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20.09
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+159.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+159.1%+$84.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$17.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Toulouse FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$18.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$6.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: DRX Academy vs FearX (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seasonbacked DRX Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$34.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.