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Stocks · resolved market

Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $260?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,135 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cd8…d09ebacked Yes12c12,370$1,484 inLost-$1,484.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x969f…4d55backed Yes58c979.2$563 inLost-$563.471,13643.8%497 W · 639 L+25.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32c4…d7ecbacked No33c776.62$254 inWon+$522.6834839.1%136 W · 212 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No43c739.98$316 inWon+$423.5848234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No51c593$303 inWon+$289.6335151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes58c400$233 inLost-$232.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c335.82$108 inWon+$227.4919934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No38c315.18$120 inWon+$195.412688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes61c299.99$183 inLost-$18399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes52c289.21$151 inLost-$150.551,81648.9%888 W · 928 L+142.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05c9…9fcbbacked No48c251.83$121 inWon+$131.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No46c200$93 inWon+$107.092975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes49c195.34$95 inLost-$95.4213147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf78…77b0backed Yes12c161$19 inLost-$19.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick12cpaid+489.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x770b…e274backed No59c152.9$90 inWon+$62.6517038.2%65 W · 105 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9245…b570backed Yes68c147.06$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes34c116.78$39 inLost-$39.2331036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked Yes60c101.74$61 inLost-$61.24465.9%29 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf4a…3a60backed No33c100$33 inWon+$67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes45c90$41 inLost-$40.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No57c87.14$49 inWon+$37.8981240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes46c82$38 inLost-$37.724117.1%7 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No24c78.9$19 inWon+$59.9651927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x734c…1d86backed No39c76.92$30 inWon+$46.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+164.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No37c68.82$25 inWon+$43.3686338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No32c58.64$19 inWon+$39.8756548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba8…0f19backed No35c54$19 inWon+$34.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes71c47.13$33 inLost-$33.291566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No37c40.85$15 inWon+$25.5527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes44c40$17 inLost-$17.453351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb3…a66abacked Yes68c36.21$25 inLost-$24.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed No51c30.83$16 inWon+$15.06771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes47c24.8$12 inLost-$11.768239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed No58c23.24$13 inWon+$9.81735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed Yes66c15.14$10 inLost-$10.042119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be8…a732backed Yes69c15$10 inLost-$10.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-52.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.