Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $300?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79b78694107adc116a45e2789ae1e0cb13c897fa6e56f0f4aa38128acebca72e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,924 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 38c | 2,044$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.27 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 54c | 936.71$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.16 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 46c | 904.97$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.17 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 56c | 719.86$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.41 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 449$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.78 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +8.7wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 32c | 448.04$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…4769backed Yes | 42c | 260.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed Yes | 67c | 178.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 54c | 175$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 66c | 159.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.32 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 33c | 153.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…3210backed No | 72c | 152$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 149$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 68c | 147.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…233abacked Yes | 57c | 143.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 57c | 139.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 45c | 126.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 92.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 30c | 82.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 36c | 69.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked Yes | 42c | 64.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 52.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae0…00b5backed Yes | 62c | 51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 43c | 35.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 48c | 34.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…4292backed No | 67c | 34.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $300?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $275?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $280?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $285?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $290?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $295?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $305?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $310?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $315?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $320?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $325?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.