TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $305?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,884

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,884 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes47c1,060$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.8713941.7%58 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No58c1,007$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.0499038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes8c1,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.288943.8%39 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No57c766.95$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0448234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x770b…e274backed No64c750$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0917038.2%65 W · 105 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes35c688.52$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.473212.5%4 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-76.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked No61c527.39$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.941,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1806864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes44c295.45$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13022129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32c4…d7ecbacked No44c212.25$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.734839.1%136 W · 212 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No57c212.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.212975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No52c165.2$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5951927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c147$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8586338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed Yes21c137.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5731036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No54c133.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9516248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad8…6be0backed No45c126$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.35550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c106$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.211,4438.8%127 W · 1,316 L-53.1wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes40c100.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8315947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes57c87.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.611735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes49c87.04$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.656643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes23c82.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x14c2…b37cbacked No60c66.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.673762.2%23 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No53c59.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.927429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes19c57.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112727.6%35 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfae0…00b5backed No59c51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed Yes40c49.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9960%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes35c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.647844.9%35 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf877…77e1backed No72c41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.482986.2%25 W · 4 L+4.8wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+24.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No60c32.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.222119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…5775backed No55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+59.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba3…27e2backed Yes41c25.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.