Earnings · resolved market
Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e41c8fb81af63d4c165bc0c23d93c574694de71216f0ffadc79428cbeab1bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 7c | 1,302$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.48 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 499.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc6…0454backed No | 10c | 494.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 340.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 13c | 281.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 5c | 251.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513e…b09cbacked No | 12c | 202.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf11e…eb4fbacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 12c | 165.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 158.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 14c | 152.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 133.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ac…bd9fbacked No | 14c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32bc…1dabbacked No | 14c | 115.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 10c | 103.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…21f7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.