Movies · resolved market
Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe78936b868c482e6fb472fa25b9a18be3801c89843dbd885f6eb07b960f70fbf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc853…5354backed No | 1c | 3,962$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 2,124$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 14c | 1,419$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.66 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,360$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 76c | 1,226$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…b9ccbacked No | 1c | 1,138$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 841.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 18c | 823.48$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 24c | 793$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 77c | 648.13$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 590.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 80c | 499.96$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…dbf7backed No | 20c | 499.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 18c | 435.88$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 428.95$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 33c | 389$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.63 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 67c | 389$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 24c | 386$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 71c | 340.97$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 12c | 315.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 279.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 14c | 269.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 15c | 250.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 14c | 176.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 176.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 80c | 150.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 73c | 118.74$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?this page
- Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?No won
- Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.