Movies · resolved market
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b38cf932b57ce22c4ed2231b6bb2b667c767f50c0dc64242865861b95b79c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0e1…e09fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e01…2847backed Yes | 1c | 1,696$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…0904backed Yes | 1c | 1,669$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffc…b8a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,626$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034c…f019backed Yes | 1c | 1,608$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…7228backed Yes | 1c | 1,556$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 14c | 782.78$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 13c | 700$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed Yes | 20c | 599.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 13c | 345.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed No | 80c | 331.71$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 18c | 294.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 20c | 289.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 28c | 288.7$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 77c | 176.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 11c | 161.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…3f46backed Yes | 18c | 159.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed79…64b8backed Yes | 8c | 132.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 80c | 125.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 120.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 104.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…ba97backed Yes | 52c | 96.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…e32abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb348…b0b9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4f29backed No | 65c | 33.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 48c | 31.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?this page
- Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?Yes won
- Will The Bride be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.