TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 2 above $400?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,334 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes43c1,797$764 inLost-$763.941,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c4…d7ecbacked No39c844.81$331 inWon+$513.6634839.1%136 W · 212 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes41c615.48$253 inLost-$253.151,77949.1%873 W · 906 L+143.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No56c580.76$325 inWon+$256.0448234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No70c500$350 inWon+$1506864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No67c403$270 inWon+$133.3299038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No34c401.96$137 inWon+$264.861926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No32c305$98 inWon+$206.722975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No38c243.9$93 inWon+$151.435151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aa5…85cabacked Yes35c223.53$78 inLost-$78.016643.9%29 W · 37 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No38c182.48$68 inWon+$114.0119934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad5d…df40backed Yes41c121.95$50 inLost-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No39c110.08$43 inWon+$67.4551927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x770b…e274backed No69c108.12$75 inWon+$33.5617038.2%65 W · 105 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…c3c5backed No30c100$30 inWon+$70837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes52c76$40 inLost-$39.5286338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c66$19 inLost-$18.841,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No34c63$21 inWon+$41.868239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6364…8316backed No65c38.58$25 inWon+$13.5831036.1%112 W · 198 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No29c37.93$11 inWon+$26.938536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec20…c74bbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes40c31.43$12 inLost-$12.4627429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No34c30$10 inWon+$19.915947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes59c25$15 inLost-$14.67922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-68.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4a7…d389backed Yes70c15$11 inLost-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.