Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55bddd38e1e7ab45e30ac8a360c7ad68274aa072137334fa17b41f38b784c7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88cd…3f5bbacked No | 22c | 746.45$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…10fcbacked Yes | 78c | 746.45$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 72c | 544.18$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.48 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 18c | 477.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 21c | 422.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 13c | 320.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…6d90backed Yes | 69c | 291.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…86cbbacked No | 38c | 263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…74aabacked No | 38c | 263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x259b…d0e9backed No | 38c | 261$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…46a8backed No | 38c | 254$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf781…c9abbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…588cbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…609fbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416f…af0bbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…d72dbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3871…6dfcbacked No | 40c | 249$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 173.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e2…6adfbacked Yes | 60c | 171$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 78c | 170$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5d…3e08backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…cce0backed Yes | 60c | 168$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…4345backed Yes | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 166.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…d7b0backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3b…fe44backed Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…cb4fbacked Yes | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…b7e1backed Yes | 62c | 164$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912c…3bcbbacked Yes | 60c | 163$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7b…83c8backed Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…00e8backed Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed No | 22c | 158.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 69c | 157.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0768…d249backed Yes | 60c | 157$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…91e4backed Yes | 62c | 154$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…a2b0backed Yes | 62c | 153$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…1f8ebacked Yes | 62c | 147$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…d115backed Yes | 62c | 146$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed No | 12c | 125.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 68c | 125.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 35c | 118.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 25c | 113.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd82f…aba0backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x87a9…4bdfbacked No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 131 | 19.8%26 W · 105 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 12c | 93.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked No | 19c | 91.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…6797backed Yes | 80c | 80.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked No | 32c | 79.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 412 | 20.6%85 W · 327 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…ab8dbacked No | 19c | 76.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 16c | 75.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed Yes | 53c | 71.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f83…0e8dbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 70c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 63c | 44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc1…5931backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d02…2753backed Yes | 77c | 39.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 20-39 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 60-79 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.