Tweets · resolved market
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fece84b31134e79b5ecc991aba27cfad23ca6add96625dc1047f3b8b3652f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,730 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x722f…f17fbacked Yes | 28c | 869$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 72c | 397$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 16c | 380$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +279.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 18c | 380$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 72c | 375$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 18c | 363$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 18c | 249.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 238.68$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.47 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 30c | 204.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.15 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9e…6693backed Yes | 30c | 170$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 162.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 73c | 124.08$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 28c | 122.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a67…f416backed Yes | 17c | 115.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 62c | 99.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 72c | 97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…6883backed Yes | 21c | 94.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.66 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 31c | 85.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked Yes | 36c | 84.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.42 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd077…46c0backed No | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 73c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…2231backed Yes | 38c | 82.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1556…6564backed Yes | 29c | 79.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 34c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 79c | 68.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 55.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed Yes | 25c | 47.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 46.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb006…bddcbacked Yes | 37c | 42.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96dd…ff8ebacked Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 57c | 38.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 46c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 53c | 22.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 67c | 16.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?this page
- Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
- Will Ted Cruz post 60-79 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.