Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6a6164f634ebf1b142c9b27d4638db3209f6d11ffbbff122e6556a1002bca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 6,314$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,042$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 799.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 20c | 733.27$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.28 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed No | 74c | 540$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 510.87$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 38c | 499.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 70c | 465.73$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.71 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 27c | 431.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.54 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 71c | 407$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 382.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1b84backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 225.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 17c | 187.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 28c | 178.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 171.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 70c | 163.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 23c | 153.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 36c | 150.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 148.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 139.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 139.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 137.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 36c | 137.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 36c | 134.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…bb82backed No | 75c | 133.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…c33fbacked Yes | 23c | 109$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 24c | 107.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 29c | 102.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 78c | 97.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 63c | 86.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 26c | 86.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 82.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 36c | 80.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 31c | 65.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked Yes | 26c | 59.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 57.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 73c | 54.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 31c | 53.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 26c | 52.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 30c | 51.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5317backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 44.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 74c | 42.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 41.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 74c | 40.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 68c | 37.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3501…418bbacked No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 74c | 33.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…415abacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 74c | 28.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b93…6de0backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…be69backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 68c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 77c | 16.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.