Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f298abd72b2da1151fea30ec842ead9dba9141854aecae7ee274d823993c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 1,817$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 1,293$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 1,280$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.35 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 1,130$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 17c | 981.72$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 59c | 763.28$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.68 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 18c | 566.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.51 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 10c | 543.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 14c | 531.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.47 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 30c | 346.51$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 290.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.93 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes | 62c | 215.88$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 68c | 210$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 16c | 201.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6f…d78bbacked Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 23c | 194.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 177.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 52c | 173.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 149.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…d227backed No | 78c | 148.05$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 34c | 143.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 73c | 126.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 126.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 62c | 121.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 45c | 111.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.58 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 16c | 105.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 23c | 101.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 93.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x418c…901abacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 66c | 88.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 58c | 77.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 76c | 73.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 31c | 70.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 67.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 16c | 66.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 45c | 66.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 18c | 64.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.97 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 49c | 62.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 61.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 47c | 58.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 19c | 55.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 53c | 53.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 54c | 49.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 35c | 48.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf4…dc8dbacked Yes | 42c | 36.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 48c | 34.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 64c | 34.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 55c | 33.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked No | 80c | 30.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.