Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2f915e7defe8f89b3d6275f9ab38459f43019db1727bbc8cc67c215cfaaec65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 1,283$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 520.46$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.81 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 69c | 435.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.46 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2153…49cdbacked Yes | 31c | 395.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 299.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 213.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 29c | 204.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 26c | 194.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 21c | 172.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 65c | 114.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 22c | 111.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 14c | 103.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 26c | 101.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe456…b323backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 23c | 99.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 99.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 77c | 90.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 34c | 87.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 15c | 87.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 87.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 21c | 80.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…5c14backed Yes | 36c | 79.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…f88abacked Yes | 19c | 69.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 28c | 54.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…ae19backed Yes | 25c | 54.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…ae1bbacked Yes | 28c | 53.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…5317backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 71c | 39.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 78c | 38.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…598abacked No | 66c | 37.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 27.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 77c | 17.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked No | 79c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 76c | 14.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.