Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ef6722166c95b9a1a8192a9897844004d436d69fc3e1d70089086e7eb12033
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069e…4636backed No | 1c | 4,091$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed No | 1c | 2,450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 2c | 2,123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked No | 1c | 1,596$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 52c | 1,279$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.2 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 1,187$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 2c | 1,176$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked No | 1c | 977.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 44c | 960.54$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.24 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked No | 4c | 882.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 610$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 3c | 580.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed No | 2c | 522$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 3c | 522$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 76c | 491.24$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 10c | 432.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 43c | 427.63$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 426.23$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad3a…80e8backed Yes | 50c | 375.94$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 61c | 374.03$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 51c | 312.35$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 32c | 303.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 22c | 299.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 26c | 296.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.64 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 6c | 270.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 13c | 252.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 9c | 250.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…d4b0backed No | 41c | 249.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faf…94acbacked Yes | 77c | 242.85$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 76c | 235.61$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 231.56$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 207.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 76c | 199.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 199.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 181.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 61c | 180.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 38c | 179.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.73 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 71c | 174.94$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 58c | 169.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed No | 12c | 169.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 168.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…10c1backed No | 10c | 155.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 11c | 154.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…eb6cbacked No | 64c | 151.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked Yes | 46c | 151.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 32c | 147.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 56c | 138.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 59c | 131.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 55c | 129.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 59c | 122.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 37c | 122.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.43 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 62c | 121.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 9c | 119.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 39c | 116.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 114.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x33a1…b0c7backed Yes | 78c | 113.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…6faebacked No | 13c | 101.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…90aebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 80c | 99.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 46c | 97.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 79c | 96.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200c…3ad8backed Yes | 67c | 91.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 56c | 88.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 45c | 87.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 19c | 82.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…2f74backed Yes | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 77.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 38c | 74.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 68c | 73.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 68c | 72.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 28c | 68.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 38c | 68.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 56c | 68.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdd…ea7fbacked No | 72c | 68.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 67.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 75c | 66.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 27c | 64.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…2f76backed Yes | 46c | 63.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6209…e82fbacked No | 31c | 62.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x007e…c290backed No | 74c | 61.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 34c | 59.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed No | 39c | 57.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 57c | 57.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…4245backed Yes | 42c | 55.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 53c | 55.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 70c | 54.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 54.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed Yes | 30c | 53.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 60c | 53.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 60c | 51.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 60c | 51.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 46c | 51.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.